Key Industry & Rate Updates
Bank of Canada & Rates
- Overnight rate held at 2.25% (December 10, 2025)
- Next announcement: January 28, 2026
- Best insured fixed: 3 year 3.79% (Meridian) 5 year 4.09% (NEO)
- Best insured 5-year variable: 3.54% (Meridian) 3.70% (most other monolines)
- Prime rate: 4.45%
Nearly 75% of economists now expect the BoC to keep rates steady through all of 2026. The rate-cutting cycle that brought us from 5% to 2.25% is effectively over unless something breaks badly.
Regulatory News
OSFI's new Capital Adequacy Requirements (CAR 2026) took effect January 1st, changing how lenders treat income-producing residential real estate. Income used to qualify one mortgage can no longer be counted again for another property. This tightens qualification for investors with multiple properties, but may create breathing room for first-time buyers who've been competing against highly leveraged investors. It is important to understand that the CAR applies to financial institutions only for classifying real estate exposures for capital purposes; not to borrower qualification or underwriting standards as outlined in Guideline B-20OSFI is also evaluating whether to replace the mortgage stress test with a loan-to-income (LTI) cap framework. Decision expected after January 2026.
What the Experts Are Saying
Benjamin Tal (CIBC) calls 2026 "a transition year between something bad and something better." He expects the housing market's first half to remain weak, with improvement in the second half as trade uncertainty clears. Tal forecasts gradual recovery but cautions against expecting sharp price rebounds. On condos specifically, he predicts Toronto and Vancouver will see another 10% decline as investors exit, but detached homes should remain relatively stable.
Market Intel
- 300,000+ mortgages renewing nationally through Q1 2026
- Renewal payment shock averaging 20% for those coming off pandemic-era rates
- Delinquencies ticking up slightly but remain below historical averages
- First-time buyer activity improving as rates stabilize
Market Snapshot GTA - December 2025
- 3,697 transactions (down 8.9% YoY)
- Average price: $1,006,735 (down 5.7% YoY)
- Benchmark price: $942,300 (down 6.3% YoY)
- New listings up 13% YoY
- Inventory: 4.6 months of supply (balanced market territory)
